Market report | Reprex

An Empirical Analysis of Music Streaming Revenues and Their Distribution

Thu, 23 Sep 2021 10:00:00 +0000

“Owing to the global nature of music earnings, the various currency translation and royalty payments applied, and because there is no global comprehensive database of rights-holders, works, and recordings, it is impossible to calculate average (mean) or typical (median) earnings with any accuracy. Even an estimate would require a very complex methodology. Understanding the earnings of an average rights-holder would require a careful disaggregation of volume, price, exchange rate, and distribution changes, and international data harmonisation.

Estimating average or typical income requires advanced empirical sampling or surveying methods. The Digital Music Observatory (previously CEEMID) has worked on developing such methods, with the support of the state51 music group. We commissioned a report from the Digital Music Observatory on the earnings of UK rights-holders and this can be found here at <the Digital Music Observatory’s Zenodo repository> Among the Observatory’s findings are that use of streaming services is generally growing in terms of volume, but the price is diminishing, which leads to diminishing or flat earnings for a typical or average British rights-holder; that in the 2015-2019 period, falling prices were partly or fully compensated by favourable changes in the exchange rate of the British pound with major currencies used in the global music business (the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen), but since 2020 there may have been changes in the opposite direction; and that for various methodological reasons, without international data harmonisation, and survey harmonisation, it is impossible to take a fully representative, unbiased sample of music creator earnings in the United Kingdom alone.” Music Creator’s Earnings in the Digital Era, p28.

Exectuive Summary of Our Research Document

The research questions asked in this report are related to the Music Creator Earnings’ Project (MCE), exploring issues concerning equitable remuneration and earnings distributions. We were tasked with providing a longitudinal analysis of earnings development and relating our findings to equitable remuneration. The starting point of our work was centred around a very broadly defined problem: how much money music creators (rightsholders) earn from streaming, how these earnings are distributed, and how the earnings and their distribution have developed during the last decade.

The highly globalized music industry generates two important international reports, as well as several national reports, but these are not suitable for the analysis of the typical or average rightsholder, nor for small labels and publishers who do not represent a large and internationally diversified portfolio of music works or recordings. Copyright and neighboring right revenues are collected in national jurisdictions. Because British artists are almost never constrained by their use of language, and the UK Music Industry is highly competitive in the global music markets, even relatively less known rightsholders earn revenues from dozens of national markets. The lack of market information on music sales volumes, prices for each jurisdiction, and the unaccounted for national, domestic, and foreign revenues makes the analysis of the rightholder’s earnings, or the economics of a certain distribution channel like music streaming or media platforms, impossible.

While total earnings are reported by international and national organizations, they hide five important economic variables: changes in sales volumes, changes in prices, market share on various national jurisdictions (which have their own volume and price movements), the exchange rates applied, and the share of the repertoire exploited. Even worse, the global music industry has no comprehensive database of rightsholders, music works, and recordings. Many rights are represented by heirs or passive investors. And because of the enormous number of works and recordings, in any given royalty payment period, most works/recordings are not used and not compensated. The lack of a known population and distribution makes usual indicators as average or median earnings arithmetically impossible to compute, and the large number of disused works and recordings makes even the estimation of the typical (median) value useless for economic analysis. The estimation of the arithmetic mean is equally problematic, because it is distorted by the earnings of very few global stars. To understand the streaming economy from the perspective of a typical or average rightsholder, or from the perspective of a small independent label or music publisher, requires very challenging sampling techniques either in surveying or in empirically observing and aggregating data from royalty accounts. National and international music organizations are not equipped with the data processing and statistical capacity to do so.

The Effect of International Diversification on Revenues - a combination of international price differences and exchange rate fluctuations.

This is the problem that the Digital Music Observatory, a working demo of the European Music Observatory is solving. It grew out of the Central & Eastern European Music Industry Databases (CEEMID) initiative in 2014, in which righthsolders from three countries attempted to solve this problem. By 2019, CEEMID had collected information on 20 European markets, including the United Kingdom, and processed data on far more markets. The state51 music group, through its distribution arm, has been supporting the creation of the largest ever European market report, the Central European Market Report, and supported the creation of the CEEMID-CI indexes, which, for the first time provided a stock-index type of view from an individual rightsholder’s perspective on volume and price movements in the UK and in other countries. The state51 music group drew attention to the observatory approach and this work in the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee (DCMS) Select Committee of the British House of Commons. The MCE project first individually contacted the Digital Music Observatory (successor of CEEMID) and state51, and eventually with the permission of state51, the project commissioned this report, which re-uses the CEEMID-CI indexes. The MCE project also committed to share data in the Digital Music Observatory.

The first chapter is divided into three subchapters: 1.1 the theoretical problems imposed by copyright law and intellectual property valuation methods; 1.2 policy issues related to the copyright management problems that lead to large amounts of unpaid royalties and value transfer, as well as potential problems with AI distribution systems and royalty distribution rules; and 1.3 identifying and offering solutions for empirical problems in estimating the relevant earnings indicators for individual rightsholders.

The second chapter presents the CEEMID-CI indexes, and gives an explanation to the seemingly paradoxical situation of total market growth, and the feeling of individual righthsolders that their earnings remain flat or decreasing. We show in 2.1 that revenues that are flat or slightly growing are caused by growing volumes and falling prices (See 2.2 https://mce.dataobservatory.eu/empirical.html#streaming-volume; 2.3 CEEMID-CI Streaming Price Index.)

The third chapter, using computer simulations, gives a fuller picture. It shows that in the UK and many other markets, in the period of 2016-2019, the growth of streaming use hardly offset the diminishing price (value) of the streams. In many markets, rightsholders, expressed in British pounds, experienced flat earnings, which was by a large extent due to the benevolent USD/GBP, EUR/GBP, and CHF/GBP exchange rates. It is likely that the majority of individual rightsholders experienced flat or diminishing revenues, and later releases brought less and less revenue per a thousand streams. A less benevolent exchange rate environment could have brought very large losses of revenue (See 3.4 for more details.)

Our computer simulations show that British rightsholders are experiencing a rather varied picture of music streaming. Because of the generally falling value of streams, short-lived hits are more impacted by value decline than perennial hits (See subchapters 3.1 and 3.2.) Rightsholders with a diversified international audience are partly shielded by these effects (See 3.3.) Younger stars and new genres generally experience a windfall from the pro-rata distribution system and older artists with more conventional genres such as rock or blues are experiencing headwinds. The publicly available market totals are hiding completely different market experiences.

The MCE project and its stakeholders did not provide us with any data. Our detailed data from other jurisdictions, however, shows that music streaming has been successfully competing with other sales/distribution formats of music partly because it was much cheaper, and generally devalued music-related rights. This is particularly the case with media platforms like YouTube. For the UK, which is not planning to adopt new EU regulations, closing the value gap is an important policy task. We also show on the example of other countries that current policy debate in the UK around the re-definition of equitable remuneration rigths, or on the pro-rata or user-centrique distribution schemes, are gaining excessive focus, and changes in these aspects of the streaming ecosystem will solve the problems of few, if any, rightsholders. We believe that the music industry must look beyond the current practices of streaming pricing and distribution, for example, to telecommunication services, and investigate the adoption of a more just system.

Our report highlights some important lessons. First, we show that in the era of global music sales platforms it is impossible to understand the economics of music streaming without international data harmonization and advanced surveying and sampling. Paradoxically, without careful adjustments for accruals, market shares in jurisdictions, and disaggregation of price and volume changes, the British industry cannot analyze its own economics because of its high level of integration to the global music economy. Furthermore, the replacement of former public performances, mechanical licensing, and private copying remunerations (which has been available for British rightsholders in their European markets for decades) with less valuable streaming licenses has left many rightsholders poorer. Making adjustments on the distribution system without modifying the definition of equitable remuneration rights or the pro-rata distribution scheme of streaming platforms opens up many conflicts while solving not enough fundamental problems. Therefore, we suggest participation in international data harmonization and policy coordination to help regain the historical value of music.

Feasibility Study On Promoting Slovak Music In Slovakia & Abroad: Why are the total market shares of Slovak music relatively low both on the domestic and the foreign markets? How can we measure the market share of the Slovak music in the domestic and foreign markets? We offer some answers and solution based on empirical research and with the creation of a database and an AI application.
Music Streaming: Is It a Level Playing Field?: Our paper argues that fair competition in music streaming is restricted by the nature of the remuneration arrangements between creators and the streaming platforms, the role of playlists, and the strong negotiating power of the major labels. It concludes that urgent consideration should be given to a user-centric payment system, as well as greater transparency of the factors underpinning playlist creation and of negotiated agreements.
Ensuring the Visibility and Accessibility of European Creative Content on the World Market: The Need for Copyright Data Improvement in the Light of New Technologies: While the US have already taken steps to provide an integrated data space for music as of 1 January 2021, the EU is facing major obstacles not only in the field of music but also in other creative industry sectors. Weighing costs and benefits, there can be little doubt that new data improvement initiatives and sufficient investment in a better copyright data infrastructure should play a central role in EU copyright policy. A trade-off between data harmonisation and interoperability on the one hand, and transparency and accountability of content recommender systems on the other, could pave the way for successful new initiatives.
Central & Eastern European Music Industry Report 2020: The results of the first Hungarian, Slovak, Croatian and Czech music industry reports are compared with Armenian, Austrian, Bulgarian, Lithuanian, Serbian and Slovenian data and findings.

Call for Open Collaboration

Do you need high-quality data for your music business or institution? Are you a music researcher? Join our open collaboration Digital Music Observatory team as a data curator, developer or business developer.

Can scholarly pirate libraries bridge the knowledge access gap? An empirical study on the structural conditions of book piracy in global and European academia

Thu, 03 Dec 2020 11:00:00 +0000

PLOS One is the fourth most influential multidisciplinary journal after Nature, and Science, and Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (based on H index.) On December 3, 2020 it published a paper co-authored by Dr. Balazs Bodo, associate professor at the Institute for Information Law (IViR), Daniel Antal (Reprex, Demo Music Observatory), a data scientist interested in reproducible research, as an independent researcher, and Zoltan Puha, a Data Science PhD at Tilburg University, JADS. PLOS (Public Library of Science) is a nonprofit Open Access publisher, empowering researchers to accelerate progress in science and medicine by leading a transformation in research communication.

The article utilizes the our reproducible datasets created with our regions package, and builds on many years of expertise in empirical research on the field of music and audiovisual piracy, home copying and private copying compensation (see for example Private Copying in Croatia.) Our aim is to provide reliable, high quality indicators for the creative industries not only on national, but provincial, state, regional and metropolitan area level, too, because these levels are often more relevant for creators, performers and policy-makers.

The topic of the paper is Library Genesis (LG), the biggest piratical scholarly library on the internet, which provides copyright infringing access to more than 2.5 million scientific monographs, edited volumes, and textbooks. The paper uses advanced statistical methods to explain why researchers around the globe use copyright infringing knowledge resources. The analysis is based on a huge usage dataset from LG, as well as data from the World Bank, Eurostat, and Eurobarometer, to identify the role of macroeconomic factors, such as R&D and higher education spending, GDP, researcher density in scholarly copyright infringing activities.

We created a global and a far more detailed European model for pirate book downloads.

The main finding of the paper is that open access, even if it is radical, is not a panacea. The hypothesis of the research was that researchers in low-income regions use piratical open knowledge resources relatively more to compensate for the limitations of their legal access infrastructures. The authors found evidence to the contrary. Researchers in high income countries and European regions with access to high quality knowledge infrastructures, and high levels of funding use radical open access resources more intensively than researchers in lower income countries and regions, with less resourceful libraries. This means that while open knowledge is an important resource to close the knowledge gap between centrum and periphery, equality in access does not translate into equality in use. Structural knowledge inequalities are both present and are being reproduced in the context of open access resources.

The paper is unique not just because of the data it is based on. It also sets new standards in interdisciplinary legal research by publishing the paper, the data and the software code in the same time in open access repositories, following reproducible research best practices — the practices that we want to promote in our Digital Music Observatory and further data observatories to serve business, evidence-based policy and scientific research.

Our research was funded from the Horizon Europe 2020 Research grant #710722 “OPENing UP new methods, indicators and tools for peer review, dissemination of research results, and impact measurement”.

Central & Eastern European Music Industry Report 2020

Wed, 29 Jan 2020 16:00:00 +0000

CEEMID & Consolidated Independent presented and discussed with stakeholders the Central & Eastern European Music Industry Report 2020 as a case-study on national and comparative evidence-based policymaking in the cultural and creative sector on the CCS Ecosystems: FLIPPING THE ODDS Conference – a two-day high-level stakeholder event jointly organized by Geothe-Institute and the DG Education and Culture of the European Commission with the Creative FLIP project.

The CEE Report builds on the results of the first Hungarian, Slovak, Croatian and Czech music industry reports are compared with Armenian, Austrian, Bulgarian, Lithuanian, Serbian and Slovenian data and findings.

Our research findings were earlier presented and discussed in Vienna, Prague, Budapest and Bratislava with stakeholders.

You can find the earlier presentations in the blog section of the website.

Executive Summary

The first Central European Music Industry Report is the result of a co-operation that started among stakeholders in three EU countries five years ago to measure the economic value added of music – the basis of a modern royalty pricing system. This gave birth to CEEMID, originally the Central & Eastern European Music Industry Databases, a data integration programme that now in 2020, covers all of Europe. CEEMID fulfils similar roles to the planned European Music Observatory and supports all pillars of the future pan-European system.

The comparison of Western and Eastern music audiences reveals key demographic differences that make the unchanged adoption of business practices from mature markets in the region questionable. Chapter 2 of this report will show these differences and their consequences on music markets, in terms of visiting and acquisition likelihood, frequency, seasonality and purchasing capacity. This is an example of how CEEMID fulfils the role of Pillar 3 (music, society and citizenship) in the planned European Music Observatory.

Chapter 3 contrasts market demand with the supply strategies of musicians. CEEMID has been surveying music professionals, including artists, technicians and managers about their working conditions, market conditions and plans for five years across a growing number of countries. In 2019 we invited 100 national and regional stakeholders to distribute our surveys. In some countries, our surveys already have several years of historic data, making the resulting musician database probably the largest ever source of data about how music is produced and how musicians live. We are constantly looking for partners to roll out this survey to new countries in new languages.

The CEE region has comparative advantages in big music events like festivals, and it has become one of the most important hubs for cultural tourism in the world. We explain this phenomenon in Chapter 4 by showing the differences in demand composition, demography and supply of venues in the second chapter. The lack of a modern and dense network of permanent music venues gave rise to magnificent music festivals in the CEE. Open’er, Sziget and Exit are among the biggest and best festivals in the world, closely followed by several smaller festivals in all countries. The share of festivals in the live music market is many times higher than in Western Europe and they provide vital export revenues to the local music economies. However, they play a limited role in finding new audiences for local artists, as they are increasingly programming for Western audiences by providing shows of international hits. They can only very partially fill in the gaps left by the small venue problem that hit the emerging markets harder than the UK or Australia, where policy action had been already taken to reverse the decline of the availability of smaller live music venues.

On the recording side, our analysis shows that modern digital services are growing at a faster rate than in mature markets. Because of lower repertoire competition, streaming quantities are similar for a typical Austrian, Czech, Hungarian, Polish or Slovak track than in the mature markets. However, revenue growth is limited because of the interplay of several analysed factors. Our analysis of the live and recorded music markets shows that CEEMID fulfils the roles of the Pillar 1 (music economy) of the planned European Music Observatory.

Most recorded music sales revenue in the region comes from streaming platforms, just like in the mature markets. Successful sales strategies require a solid knowledge of the global marketplace and the ability to understand and train sales algorithms. Micro-enterprises, such as independent labels, have very limited ability to cope with these functions, given that they do not have market research or R&D functions. CEEMID and Consolidated Independent have started initiating open, national R&D consortia to create the necessary concentration in data assets, analytical capacity and budgets to close this gap. As a first step, CEEMID and Consolidated Independent have created a large, independent music dataset based on hundreds of millions of royalty statement entries to create our market indexes, styled after stock market and bond market indexes. Streaming opportunities are fast changing as roll-out of streaming services is happening at a different rate in various territories; subscription charges and the exchange rate to the producer’s currency vary and repertoire competition emerges in the market. Our volume and revenue indexes in Chapter 5.3 are aimed at creating sales algorithms that optimize sales volumes and expected revenues. We believe that this analysis also reveals that CEEMID partially fulfils the roles of Pillar 2 (music diversity and circulation) and feeds important data into Pillar 4 (innovation).

The region has far bigger untapped potential than most music business executives believe. Households in the region spend a significantly lower share of their recreational budget on music than their Western, Southern or Nordic peers. The region has a lot of untapped cultural purchasing power because servicing is particularly challenging in both the live and recorded sides of the business.

This upside potential cannot be tapped without better pricing. Royalty levels are often very low in the region. Due to many combined effects analysed in this short report, the gap between royalties earned in the CEE and Western Europe is several times bigger than the difference in GDP or national average wage. These gaps are partly caused by special interests preventing collective management from charging appropriate tariffs for restaurants, media companies or electronic appliance importers and manufacturers, and partly by unfavourable taxation of cultural products and services.

CEEMID was designed to create economic evidence on royalty pricing, private copying compensation and the creation of economic value added in the industry. In the first Hungarian Music Industry Report of ProArt and in the first Slovak Music Industry Report we have shown that economic and taxation policies of the CEE countries aimed to support car and electronics manufacturing create a distorted, unfavourable economic regime for creative industries. We want to help local stakeholders with economic evidence to correct these discriminatory policies during the overhaul of the EU VAT system. We have been helping various national organizations with economic evidence, presented in the light of latest EU jurisprudence, to improve their pricing activities. Our thousands of indicators were also used in ex ante evaluations of granting schemes.

In 2020, all EU member states will change their copyright administration legislation because of the national implementations of the 2019/790 Digital Single Market directive. CEEMID provides evidence in several countries about the size and impact mechanism of the value transfer, and generally the widespread use of the copyright exemption for private copying. We believe that the thousands of pan-European music industry indicators that we have aggregated over the five years will play a vital role in these regulatory processes.

CEEMID fulfils its roles with a very thorough exploitation of the EU’s 17-years-old Open Data regime with the re-use of public sector information, and a very careful mapping of the music industry. These maps help us conduct annual surveys among musicians and the audience, and they help us connect (always with pre-approval and with a user mandate) to industry databases. We do not only cover the EU countries, but increasingly (potential) candidate countries and neighbourhood countries.

In our vision, this data collection and integration, i.e. Pillars 1-3 should be available for all music stakeholders, should remain public and publicly funded. The last Pillar of the observatory, innovation, is where private entities should compete. The founders of CEEMID and Consolidated Independent believe that this report demonstrates the business and policy benefits of such a system with the analysis of the Central & Eastern European music markets. We believe that this way CEEMID is in a position to serve most of the planned functions of the envisioned European Music Observatory, and we are looking for ways to make either our thousands of indicators, or our data collection and integration software open source and available for all stakeholders in the EU and its neighbours. CEEMID was born out of necessity to level out the different levels of public research and statistical coverage of the EU member states. In our view, private entities in the future should focus their investments in Pillar 4 of the planned observatory, i.e. competing in innovation with creating new models, algorithms and services based on data that is available throughout the European Union without giving further advantage to the already mature markets.